206 Potapskut SA - Race to Rock Hall

Hmm…the tropics are certainly making things interesting!   

We're keeping a super close eye on IAN.  Right now, there is a fairly large degree of divergence in the models.  I like this website for info:

https://spaghettimodels.com/

as well as the NHC pages.  (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)

As things stand now, it looks like we can race to Rock Hall without getting hammered.  The next day (Sunday)? Well that's possibly a different story, but at least it'll be downwind if you are headed for the western shore and points south.  

We'll keep you posted.  A couple of questions:

- If things look dicey for Sunday, would that prevent you from doing the race on Saturday?  

- Or, would you finish and then turn and burn & skip the party? 

PSA would love to know, because we need a head-count for Saturday evening.

Thanks for any info, opinions, and suggestions!

– Tim Ford

timford@nbayracing.com

Potapskut Sailing Assoc.

Hello folks, we just wanted to update you on this weekend.  There's still a bit of divergence with the models but it appears Ian may wander offshore (Florida east coast) and speed up a tiny bit. 

 The Fx for the upper bay for Saturday varies from 11-17 to sustained mid 20's, puffs to 35.  In rain and reduced visibilty that's not a whole lot of fun.  So we'll continue to monitor the various forecasts, but here are a few questions, because we'd love to know what your preferences may be:

(a) Do you plan to overnight at Rock Hall and attend the party or

(b) would you prefer to sail home after the finish to avoid ongoing bad weather?

(c) some clubs have already canceled (Cambridge Yacht Club) - if we did, we’d refund your registration. 
Would you be OK with our cancellation of both the race & the party?

(d) Would you still like to race even if it’s rainy and generally nasty?

(e) have you already decided to bail from this race?

Thanks, we'd love to hear back from you.If you've already contacted us, feel free to just ignore this email. 

– The PSA Race Committee

OK, here is the latest:  

The post-race party at Haven Harbour is cancelled.  About half the registered fleet has indicated they will finish and then turn back to home port.  The venue is, for the most part open, with very little roofed cover available. With one to four inches of rain predicted, and 15 - 25 kn breeze,  it will be uncomfortable at best standing around outside. So that's a no go.

The race's status is still under consideration. Some folks have said they will race as long as the breeze stays below 30 kn. Some have said if it's really nasty, they won't come out.  

We on the signal boat are concerned about safety, as the predicted sustained 24 kn from the north, with approx. 20 miles of fetch, will set up a nasty sea state, especially pre-race with the flood tide going against the wind. One suggestion was to stage the Signal boat inside Mountain Point and start the race in the lee of Gibson Island, send the boats out to marks in the bay and finish back inside the river.  But we are not too sure how folks would feel about that, especially boats coming from points well south, such as Annapolis and Galesville, not to mention from Rock Hall and Rock Creek.

I'd say the odds of getting the race in are about 50-50 right now.  That'll change one way or the other by no later than 1000 hrs tomorrow.  Stay tuned.

-PSA Race Committee

Good morning Rock Hall racers.  

First off, apologies for the delay in posting the SI.  We still plan on having them out by noon today (Friday).  It looks like the breeze is going to lay down after 1200 hrs.  We are thinking of moving the rendez-vous and first warning to noon instead of 1100 hrs. This would also give boats coming up from Annapolis a bit more time to make the start.

The bottom line for all of this is: unless the NWS posts a gale warning, we will have a race! 

Keep you posted and check your email frequently until you leave the dock tomorrow!

Thanks,

--PSA Race Committee

PSA is CANCELING tomorrow's (Oct 1), Race to Rock Hall.  

Many factors led to this decision including:

- a slew of forecast "heads-up" from a variety of sources, suggesting gusts may persist into the high 30s and low 40s, even into tomorrow afternoon

- conversations with CBYRA and race officers in other venues in the upper bay, who have strongly recommended canceling

- the fact that AYC, TAYC, CYC and HdGYC have all canceled this weekend's racing

- the difficulty some competitors may have, especially in the early morning, trying to make the start in gale conditions.

PSA is saddened to have to cancel, but we feel it's the prudent thing to do and clearly in the best interest of the health and safety of our racing community.  We hope for better luck next year and we thank you for registering for our race.  We'll work on getting you full refunds in the next few days.

-- The PSA Race Committee